Arias, P. A., et al., , Monteiro, P.M.S. (CA)

The Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) assesses the physical science basis of climate change. As part of that contribution, this Technical Summary (TS) is designed to bridge between the comprehensive assessment of the WGI Chapters and its Summary for Policymakers (SPM). It is primarily built from the Executive Summaries of the individual chapters and Atlas and provides a synthesis of key findings based on multiple lines of evidence (e.g., analyses of observations, models, paleoclimate information and understanding of physical, chemical and biological processes and components of the climate system). All the findings and figures here are supported by and traceable to the underlying

TS chapters, with relevant chapter sections indicated in curly brackets.

Throughout this Technical Summary, key assessment findings are reported using the IPCC calibrated uncertainty language (Chapter 1, Box 1.1). Two calibrated approaches are used to communicate the degree of certainty in key findings, which are based on author teams’ evaluations of underlying scientific understanding:

  1. 1)  Confidence is a qualitative measure of the validity of a finding, based on the type, amount, quality and consistency of evidence (e.g., data, mechanistic understanding, theory, models, expert judgment) and the degree of agreement.
  2. 2)  Likelihood provides a quantified measure of confidence in a finding expressed probabilistically (e.g., based on statistical analysis of observations or model results, or both, and expert judgement by the author team or from a formal quantitative survey of expert views, or both).
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